Monday, 31 December 2018

Seth's Blog : Hilbert's list

In 1900, David Hilbert published a list of 23 problems that he proposed would be the important ones for mathematicians to solve in the upcoming century. That list led to a focused effort that lasted a century, and the vast majority of the problems have ...

Hilbert’s list

In 1900, David Hilbert published a list of 23 problems that he proposed would be the important ones for mathematicians to solve in the upcoming century. That list led to a focused effort that lasted a century, and the vast majority of the problems have been fully or partially solved. Ignoramus et ignorabimus is a foolish statement. We can know, and one day, we will.

Technology (the technology of connection, of devices and of knowledge) can create a surplus. The cost of light, of transport and of food has dropped by orders of magnitude in just a few lifetimes. Most of us waste electricity, water and other essentials in ways that would have been astonishing just a generation ago. Privileged populations go to the doctor for illnesses that wouldn’t even be a topic for discussion among those with less access to the surplus that we’ve created in access to healthcare.

Surely, we can build a better future with technology instead of focusing on autonomous drone delivery of a latte 9 blocks away in San Francisco.

As we enter a new year, one in which technology promises to move faster than ever, it’s worth considering what our 23 problems might be. (Hilbert left one off his list, and others have created very different lists–there’s no right answer).

A personal list is a great place to start (because, after all, you’ve solved much of what confronted you a decade ago). Technology doesn’t have to be high-tech. It can simply be the hard work of finding generous solutions to important problems, big or small.

Our next steps might be far more effective than simple resolutions, which are easily ignored or pushed aside. We can work toward dignity, toward access, toward seeing the world as it is…

As citizens, creators and consumers, each of us can also propose a more global list. To get you started, here are some that come to mind for the next decades. Feel free to publish your own list, which is likely to be better informed and more nuanced, but here you go…

[This list seems ridiculous until you realize that in the last few generations, we created vaccines, antibiotics, smartphones, GPS and the Furby].

1. High efficiency, sustainable method for growing sufficient food, including market-shifting replacements for animals as food
2. High efficiency, renewable energy sources and useful batteries (cost, weight, efficiency)
3. Effective approaches to human trafficking
4. Carbon sequestration at scale
5. Breakthrough form for democracy in a digital age
6. Scalable, profitable, sustainable methods for small-scale creators of intellectual property
7. Replacement for the University
8. Useful methods for enhancing, scaling or replacing primary education, particularly literacy
9. Beneficial man/machine interface (post Xerox Parc)
10. Cost efficient housing at scale
11. Useful response to urban congestion
12. Gene therapies for obesity, cancer and chronic degenerative diseases
13. Dramatic leaps of AI interactions with humans
14. Alternatives to paid labor for most humans
15. Successful interactions with intelligent species off Earth
16. Self-cloning of organs for replacement
17. Cultural and nation-state conflict resolution and de-escalation
18. Dramatically new artistic methods for expression
19. Useful enhancements to intellect and mind for individuals
20. Shift in approach to end-of-life suffering and solutions for pain
21. Enhanced peer-to-peer communication technologies approaching the feeling of telepathy
22. Transmutation of matter to different elements and structures
23. Off-planet outposts

It’s going to get interesting. Especially if we can imagine it.

  


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Sunday, 30 December 2018

Seth's Blog : Creating a useful spec

If you want someone to help, you'll do better with a spec. It lists just four things: What is the problem to be solved? How are we going to solve it? How can we test that the thing we built matches what we set out to build? How will we know if it's ...

Creating a useful spec

If you want someone to help, you’ll do better with a spec. It lists just four things:

  1. What is the problem to be solved?
  2. How are we going to solve it?
  3. How can we test that the thing we built matches what we set out to build?
  4. How will we know if it’s working?

While there are only four steps, the specificity of each step is essential. The spec for a 787 jet, for example, leaves very little room for argument about what’s being created. On the other hand, “I’ll know it when I see it,” isn’t at all helpful.

If you’re not spending at least 5% of your project budget on the spec, you might be doing it wrong.

  


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Saturday, 29 December 2018

Seth's Blog : Installing the stupid filter

I've never once had a meeting at 3 am. Not once. My iCal is apparently unaware of this. If I type "3" into the time box on my calendar, it blithely defaults to "am". A woman left a tip of more than $5,000 at a kebab shop in Switzerland, because ...

Installing the stupid filter

I’ve never once had a meeting at 3 am. Not once.

My iCal is apparently unaware of this. If I type “3” into the time box on my calendar, it blithely defaults to “am”.

A woman left a tip of more than $5,000 at a kebab shop in Switzerland, because she typed her PIN (5650) when the little card reader was asking her for her tip instead. Of course, she had never left a tip approaching this amount before, but the device was missing a stupid filter.

“Are you sure?” is something humans ask all the time. If you go to an ethical plastic surgeon and announce, through drunken tears, that you want a new nose, new lips, new hips and a skin peel, all at once, she’ll not only ask if you’re sure, but she’ll send you home to think about it first.

We keep hearing about how AI is going to take all our jobs. Perhaps it should begin with the job of asking if we’re sure.

  


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